Less than 24 hours to go now before the vote starts in Scotland and in less than 48 hours we will know the answer to the question – is David Cameron in political trouble or in really serious political trouble? By this time (09:07hrs) on Friday we will have a good idea the answer, As things stand I guess he may well have squeaked a narrow victory although I have this sneaking suspicion that the vote won’t be as close as is thought and that for all the Yes side noise and bluster they might not get anything like the vote the polls are suggesting. If it turns out a 60/40 vote split in favour of the union what then for the SNP and team Scotland? I have no idea what the answer to those question might be but I guess by Friday we might have some early indications.
I have made it clear that I think a Yes vote is the only long term solution to the vexed question of the relationship between England and Scotland. I don’t think that this will be an easy option but will mean that the two countries can start to have a mature conversation – I suspect this is also being very optimistic. If there is a 60/40 result for the union then I suspect there will be great pressure placed on Cameron to kick the whole question Scotland into the long grass from his side who, after all, seem to think that leaving the EU will be a walk in the park with no adverse consequences. I am struck that so many of the arguments and questions that have been raised in the Scottish debate are exactly the same as the EU debate. Yet UKIP and the Tory right seem to think that none of this matters as it will free us to find our way into the world afresh, unbound by the shackles of the EU, without answering all the associated questions of how do you maintain good relations with a bloc you have just repudiated and yet still do the majority of your business with. A bloc which will feel pretty pissed off at you and probably will be looking at some way of attacking ‘anglo saxon economics’ in some way – how about stifling the City of London. Just a thought.
So good luck to Scotland when they start to vote tomorrow. I think most voters will enter the voting booth knowing the weight of history is on their shoulders and they will take a while to make their mark. Once that has been done it will be for future to decide what happens next. I wish all Scots well in their endeavours on Thursday.