Back in September 2016 I sketched out a possible path towards Jeremy Corbyn becoming the next Prime Minister. I have to say it was just a little bit of fun and quite honestly I can’t see it happening any time soon…that was before a General Election was called and now all bets are off, although at the moment that is because the bookies don’t think that Corbyn will be the next Prime Minister.
It would seem that Theresa May wants this election to be all about Brexit. She claims that her reason for this is that she needs a strong government to negotiate with the EU over what form Brexit takes. She claims that the opposition are doing their job and opposing and so she needs to make it clear that she is firmly in charge and so she can drive a coach and horses through any opposition she may get should she win. I am not sure she was being too honest about which opposition she was talking about. I suspect the opposition she is really trying to dispose of sits behind her on the Government benches in the House of Commons. If she wins big then the true Brexiteers will have a little chances of opposing the messy compromise she will bring back from the negotiations with the European Union. That is the plan – will it work?
Probably but there a number of reasons to wonder: Firstly, Theresa May is by far the most popular UK leader that cannot be doubted but that doesn’t mean that she can fight an election that she wants. The recent Richmond by election was supposed to be fought on the Heathrow expansion but in the end became all about Brexit and so the sitting MP lost. If Brexit is discounted then the Tories may well be in trouble as they are in a mess over all sorts of things; Secondly, there is the question of the South West of England. Here we have a raft of seats that were won from the Liberal Demonstrates by the Conservative Party. Most of them have very small majorities and it will only take a very small swing to the Lib Dems for many seats to fall. If this is the case then this could eat into the slim Tory majority in the House of Commons; Thirdly, if the election is fought on Brexit then this could make a number of other Tory seats vulnerable as the sitting MP was a Brexiteer yet their consistency voted to remain; Forthly, Scotland. The assumption is that the SNP will hold onto their seats but what if they don’t? What if two or three fall perhaps to the Labour party – we are living in a political looking glass world so never say never – what then? Finally there is the unknown unknowns and by this I don’t mean that the Korean war is resumed, although that would certainly make things far more interesting, but something that comes out of the blue what then?
As with all elections it is far too easy to assume you know what the outcome will be at the start, just ask Hillary Clinton or David Cameron, and that would be a grave error here. There is just an outside chance that Jeremy Corbyn may well become the Prime Minister of a coalition government – now that would really be the biggest political upset by far.
One final thing – UKIP have already excelled themselves in making a rather silly comment as it would seem that a General Election is somewhat undemocratic if it leads to an abandonment of Brexit. I really don’t understand that – my understanding of the way the constitution works is that a mandate from the people at a General Election is the only thing that counts no matter what any previous advisory referendum might say…I could be wrong it has been known to happen before.