It is a while since I wrote about the gift that never stops giving – Brexit. To recap it has ended the career of one Prime Minister and will almost certainly consume a second over the next two years; It has allowed endless speculation about all sorts of things that up until the vote last year few people even knew existed (I am aware of the irony of that last statement) and allowed both sides of the argument to engage in their favourite pass time – making up huge porky pies about the other and claiming that only their side of the argument is the right one. In short we are in as big a mess now as we were when the Brexit vote was cast.
When I say we I include the rest of the European Union as much as Britain. I don’t buy the we are all pulling together heading in the same direction narrative being projected by the European Commision when clearly they are not. If you don’t believe me then just take a look at the how Italy is being left to deal with the mounting refugee crisis very much on its own. There are many worthy statements from Brussels but reports from the seafront don’t seem to match the grand rhetoric. Equally, it is assumed that the election of President Macron is some form of new beginning for the European Union – yet he nor his neophyte party and MPs have not been tested and they will face all sorts of pressure over the coming months if they are turn the President’s plans into real change in France. They may well succeed but at this time the ‘New Jupiter’ might just turn out to be just that a huge amount of hot gas with little relative substance underneath. We just don’t know. In short Britain may well be in a right mess but if you look under the surface of the EU they aren’t in any great shape either. At the moment the only thing holding them together seems to be ironically Brexit – whether that will be the case over the next 12 months is another question when the full horrors of how Brexit might damage the EU start to dawn on people within the EU. I know that this isn’t a popular view amongst some people at the moment but as I have already written there are an awful lot of people earn their livings selling things to Britain and if the European Commision bungle things then the unity of the 27 will collapse very quickly indeed.
An example of this is the nonsense trying to remove Euro clearing from the city of London. Now I am no expert on these matters and so what I am about the write might be full of incorrect or misunderstood facts but very simply the Euro Currency needs the city of London to work. By the city I mean everything, legal services, insurance service, knowhow – the whole package. So if you are a large German manufacturer who wants to convert your dollar earnings into Euros then this takes place in the City – there really is nowhere else to do this. There have been many reports of the European Commision wanting this work to be undertaken within the boundaries of the European Union but there is nowhere for this to be undertaken – not at Frankfurt and certainly not Paris. Perhaps one day there may be but not in the foreseeable future and so if this isn’t sorted out there will be a huge hole at the centre of the Euro which can be papered over but only by adding cost and uncertainty to the whole process. Then there is the question question of corporate loans and the European Investment Bank.
So far this is sounding very Eurosceptic but it really isn’t meant to be. What I am trying to say and I think I have been saying this from day one of this home grown cock up is that Britain needs the European Union and the European Union needs Britain far more than they are letting on. It is in both of our interests to stop the ‘who’s got the biggest cock?’ posturing and accept that in truth we need one another. We screw this up and we are both losers and there is no place on either side for no deal. Both sides will have to accept uncomfortable compromises otherwise…well I am not sure where we go from there – turmoil in the short term as … lets just say it won’t be the sunny uplands that still seem to be the myth being put about by the Brexiteers. I believe the current metaphor is the Chocolate Orange which of course was once manufactured in York by a British company but is now manufactured in Poland by a huge American multinational.